In assessing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) both ‘relative’ and ‘absolute’ aspects have been analysed:

•   ‘Trend assessment’ or spatial distribution assessment to focus on relative differences and changes on spatial and temporal scales – provides information about the rates of change and whether PAH contamination is widespread or confined to specific locations; and

•   ‘Status assessment’ of the significance of the (risk of) pollution, defined as the status where PAHs are at a hazardous level, usually requires assessment criteria that take account of the possible severity of the impacts and hence require criteria that take account of the natural conditions (background concentrations) and ecotoxicology of the contaminants. For example, Environmental Assessment Criteria (EAC) are tools in this type of assessment.

OSPAR has clarified that in assessing the Co-ordinated Environmental Monitoring Programme (CEMP) data the primary assessment value used in the assessment of PAH concentrations in sediment and biota “corresponds to the achievement, or failure to achieve, statutory targets or policy objectives for contaminants in these matrices” (OSPAR, 2009). This set of assessment criteria was specifically compiled for the assessment of CEMP monitoring data on hazardous substances contributing to the Quality Status Report (QSR) 2010. The use of this set was considered an interim solution for the purposes of the QSR 2010 until more appropriate approaches to defining assessment criteria could be agreed on and implemented. These criteria have also been used in the annually recurring CEMP assessments since 2010 and will be used until OSPAR adopts improved assessment criteria and subject to the conditions set out in the agreement.

Temporal trends in PAH concentrations in sediment are presented. Two assessment criteria are used to assess PAH concentrations in sediment: Background Assessment Concentrations (BACs) and United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sediment quality guidelines; Effects Range-Low (ERL).

OSPAR IA 2017 Indicator Assessment values are not to be considered as equivalent to proposed European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) criteria threshold values. However, they can be used for the purposes of their MSFD obligations by those Contracting Parties that wish to do so.

Provenance and limitations of BACs

Background assessment concentrations (BACs) were developed by OSPAR for testing whether measured concentrations are near natural background levels for naturally occurring substances and close to zero for man-made substances, the ultimate aim of the OSPAR Hazardous Substances Strategy. Mean concentrations significantly below the BAC are said to be near natural background concentrations. BACs are statistical tools defined in relation to the background concentrations or low concentrations, which enable statistical testing of whether observed concentrations could be considered to be near natural background concentrations.

Background concentrations (BCs) are assessment tools intended to represent the concentrations of hazardous substances that would be expected in the North-East Atlantic if certain industrial developments had not happened. They represent the concentrations of those substances at ‘remote’ sites, or in ‘pristine’ conditions based on contemporary or historical data respectively, in the absence of significant mineralisation and / or oceanographic influences. In this way, they relate to the background values referred to in the OSPAR Hazardous Substances Strategy. BCs for man-made substances should be regarded as zero. It is recognised that natural processes such as geological variability or upwelling of oceanic waters near the coast may lead to significant variations in background concentrations of contaminants, for example trace metals. The natural variability of background concentrations should be taken into account in the interpretation of CEMP data, and local conditions should be taken into account when assessing the significance of any exceedance.

Low concentrations (LCs) are values used to assist the derivation of BACs where there have been difficulties in assembling a dataset on concentrations in remote or pristine areas from which to derive BCs. LCs have been prepared by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea on the basis of datasets from areas that could generally be considered remote but which could not be guaranteed to be free from influence from long-range atmospheric transport of contaminants. LCs have also been used to assess concentrations in sediments from Spain due to the specific bulk composition of sediments from the coasts of the Iberian Peninsula. It is recognised that natural background concentrations may be lower than the LCs and that they may not be directly applicable across the entire Maritime Area.

BACs are calculated according to the method set out in Section 4 of the CEMP Assessment Manual (OSPAR, 2008). The outcome of this method is that, on the basis of what is known about variability in observations, there is a 90% probability that the observed mean concentration will be below the BAC when the true mean concentration is at the BC. Where this is the case, the true concentrations can be regarded as ’near background’ (for naturally occurring substances) or ’close to zero’ (for man-made substances).

BACs are calculated on the basis of variability within the CEMP dataset currently available through databases held by the ICES Data Centre and will be refined at the working level by the relevant assessment group as further CEMP monitoring data are collected.

Provenance and limitations of ERLs

Because OSPAR has not yet established Environmental Assessment Criteria (EACs) for PAHs in sediment, an alternative means of assessment is required. ‘Effects range’ values were developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as sediment quality guidelines for assessing the ecological significance of contaminant concentrations in sediment to protect against the potential for adverse biological effects on organisms. Concentrations below the Effects Range-Low (ERL) level rarely cause adverse effects in marine organisms.

The ERL value is defined as the lower tenth percentile of the data set of concentrations in sediments which were associated with biological effects. Adverse effects on organisms are rarely observed when concentrations fall below the ERL value, and the ERL therefore has some parallels with the philosophy underlying the OSPAR EACs and the Environmental Quality Standards (EQSs) of the European Union Water Framework Directive. The procedure by which ERL criteria are derived is very different from the methods used to derive EACs and EQSs, and so precise equivalence between the two sets of criteria should not be expected. ERL values are to be used in sediment assessments of PAHs as an interim solution where recommended EACs are not available.

Assessment methods

For each PAH compound at each monitoring site, the time series of concentration measurements was assessed for temporal trends and status using the methods described in the contaminants online assessment tool (http://dome.ices.dk/osparmime2016/main.html). The results from these individual time series were then synthesised at the assessment area scale in a series of meta-analyses.

For temporal trends, those monitoring sites that were representative of general conditions were considered and those monitoring sites impacted due to a point source and baseline monitoring sites where temporal trends would not be expected were excluded. Analysis was also restricted to assessment areas where there were at least three monitoring sites with trend information and where those monitoring sites had reasonable geographic spread.

The temporal trend for each PAH compound at each monitoring site was summarised by the estimated annual change in log concentration, with its associated standard error. The annual change in log concentration was then modelled by a linear mixed model with a fixed effect:

            ~ OSPAR contaminants assessment area

and random effects:

            ~ compound + compound: OSPAR contaminants assessment area + monitoring site + compound: monitoring site + within-series variation

The choice of fixed and random effects was motivated by the assumption that the PAH compounds would have broadly similar temporal trends, since they have similar sources. Thus, the fixed effect measures the common temporal trend in PAH compounds in each assessment area and the random effects measure variation in trends:

• between compounds common across contaminants assessment area (compound);
• between compounds within contaminants assessment area (compound: contaminants assessment area);
• between monitoring sites common across compounds (monitoring site); and
• residual variation (compound: monitoring site + within-series variation).

There are two residual terms. Within-series variation is the variation associated with the estimate of the temporal trend from the individual time series and is assumed known (and given by the square of the standard error). Compound: monitoring site allows for any additional residual variation.

Evidence of temporal trends in PAH concentration at the assessment area scale was then assessed by plotting the estimated fixed effects with point-wise 95% confidence intervals. Differences between compounds were explored by plotting the predicted trend for each compound and for each compound / assessment area combination with point-wise 95% confidence intervals.

Similar analyses explored status at the assessment area. Two summary measures were considered: the log ratio of the fitted concentration in the last monitoring year to the ERL; and the log ratio of the fitted concentration in the last monitoring year to the BAC. Baseline monitoring sites were also included in these analyses.

Finally, concentration profiles across compounds at the assessment area scale were explored using the fitted log concentration in the last monitoring year.

BACs and / or ERLs are available for the PAHs shown in Table a.

Table a notes:

• BACs are normalised to 2.5% organic carbon in all assessment areas except the Iberian Sea and Gulf of Cadiz, where BACs are not normalised.

The number of time series used in each OSPAR region and assessment area is shown in Table b.

Differences in methodology used for the IA 2017 compared to the QSR 2010

For the IA 2017, a meta-analysis is used to synthesise the individual time series results and provide an assessment of status and temporal trend at the assessment area level. Meta-analyses take into account both the estimate of status or temporal trend in each time series and the uncertainty in that estimate. They provide a more objective regional assessment than was possible in the QSR 2010, where a simple tabulation of the trend and status at each monitoring site was presented.

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