Status and Trend for Heavy Metals (Cadmium, Mercury and Lead) in Sediment

In assessing heavy metals both ‘relative’ and ‘absolute’ aspects have been analysed:

•     ‘Trend assessment’ or spatial distribution assessment to focus on relative differences and changes on spatial and temporal scales – provides information about the rates of change and whether contamination is widespread or confined to specific locations; and

•     ‘Status’ assessment of the significance of the (risk of) pollution, defined as the status where metals are at a hazardous level, usually requires assessment criteria that take account of the possible severity of the impacts and hence requires criteria that take account of the natural conditions (background concentrations) and the ecotoxicology of the heavy metals. For example, (Effects Range-Low (ERL) values are used by OSPAR as proxy Environmental Assessment Criteria (EAC).

OSPAR has clarified that in assessing the Co-ordinated Environmental Monitoring Programme (CEMP) data the primary assessment value used in the assessment of heavy metal concentrations in sediment and biota, “corresponds to the achievement, or failure to achieve, statutory targets or policy objectives for contaminants in these matrices” (OSPAR, 2009). This set of assessment criteria was specifically compiled for the assessment of CEMP monitoring data on hazardous substances contributing to the QSR 2010. The use of this set was considered an interim solution for the purposes of the QSR 2010 until more appropriate approaches to defining assessment criteria could be agreed on and implemented. These criteria have also been used in the annually recurring CEMP assessments since 2010 and will be used until OSPAR agrees on the adoption of improved assessment criteria and subject to the conditions set out in the agreement.

Trends in heavy metal concentrations in sediment are presented. Two assessment criteria are used to assess the status of heavy metal concentrations in sediment: Background Assessment Concentrations (BACs) and United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) sediment quality guidelines; Effects Range-Low (ERL) (NOAA, 1999).

OSPAR IA 2017 Indicator Assessment values are not to be considered as equivalent to proposed European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) criteria threshold values, however they can be used for the purposes of their MSFD obligations by those Contracting Parties that wish to do so.

Provenance and limitations of BACs

Background Assessment Concentrations (BACs) were developed by OSPAR for testing whether measured concentrations are near background levels for naturally occurring substances and close to zero for man-made substances, the ultimate aim of the OSPAR Hazardous Substances Strategy. Mean concentrations significantly below the BAC are said to be near background (naturally occurring concentrations). BACs are statistical tools defined in relation to the background concentrations or low concentrations, which enable statistical testing of whether observed concentrations could be considered to be near background concentrations.

Background concentrations (BCs) represent the concentrations of hazardous substances that would be expected in the North-East Atlantic if certain industrial developments had not happened. They represent the concentrations of those substances at ‘remote’ sites, or in ‘pristine’ conditions based on contemporary or historical data respectively, in the absence of significant mineralisation and/or oceanographic influences. In this way, they relate to the background values referred to in the OSPAR Hazardous Substances Strategy. BCs for synthetic, man-made substances should be regarded as zero. It is recognised that natural processes such as geological variability or upwelling of oceanic waters near the coast may lead to significant variations in background concentrations of contaminants, for example trace heavy metals. The natural variability of background concentrations should be taken into account in the interpretation of CEMP data, and local conditions should be taken into account when assessing the significance of any exceedance.

Low concentrations (LCs) are values used to assist the derivation of BACs where there have been difficulties in assembling a dataset on concentrations in remote or pristine areas from which to derive BCs. LCs have been prepared on the basis of datasets from areas that could generally be considered remote but which could not be guaranteed to be free from the influence of long-range atmospheric transport of contaminants. LCs have also been used to assess concentrations in sediments from Spain due to the specific bulk composition of sediments from the coasts of the Iberian Peninsula. It is recognised that natural background concentrations may be lower than the LCs and that they may not be directly applicable across the entire Convention area.

BACs are calculated according to the method set out in Section 4 of the CEMP Assessment Manual (OSPAR, 2008). The outcome is that, on the basis of what is known about variability in observations, there is a 90% probability that the observed mean concentration will be below the BAC when the true mean concentration is at the BC. Where this is the case, the true concentrations can be regarded as ‘near background’ (for naturally occurring substances) or ‘close to zero’ (for man-made substances).

BACs are calculated on the basis of variability within the CEMP dataset currently available through databases held by the ICES Data Centre and will be refined at the working level by the relevant assessment group as further CEMP monitoring data are collected.

Provenance and limitations of ERLs

OSPAR has not yet established EACs for heavy metals in sediment. Therefore a proxy means of assessment has been used. ‘Effects range’ values were developed by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for assessing the ecological significance of contaminant concentrations in sediment, to protect against the potential for adverse biological effects on organisms. Concentrations below the Effects Range-Low (ERL) level rarely cause adverse effects in marine organisms.

The ERL value is defined as the lower tenth percentile of the data set of concentrations in sediments, which were associated with biological effects. Adverse effects on organisms are rarely observed when concentrations fall below the ERL value, and the ERL therefore has some parallels with the philosophy underlying the OSPAR EACs and the Environmental Quality Standards (EQSs) of the European Union Water Framework Directive. The procedure by which ERL criteria are derived is very different from the methods used to derive EACs and EQSs, and so precise equivalence between the two sets of criteria should not be expected. ERL values are used in sediment assessments of contaminants as an interim solution where recommended EACs are not available.

Assessment Methods

For each heavy metal at each monitoring site, the time series of concentration measurements was assessed for trends and status using the methods described in the contaminants online assessment tool (http://dome.ices.dk/osparmime2016/main.html). The results from these individual time series were then synthesised at the OSPAR assessment area scale in a series of meta-analyses.

Trend assessments included those monitoring sites that were representative of general conditions, and excluded those monitoring sites impacted due to a point source as well as baseline monitoring sites where trends would not be expected. The analysis was also restricted to assessment areas where there were at least three monitoring sites with trend information and where those monitoring sites had reasonable geographic spread.

The trend in each metal at each monitoring site was summarised by the estimated annual change in log concentration, with its associated standard error. The annual change in log concentration was then modelled by a linear mixed model with fixed effects:

        ~ heavy metal: OSPAR contaminants assessment areas

and random effects:

        ~ monitoring site + metal: monitoring site + within-series variation

The choice of fixed and random effects was motivated by the assumption that the heavy metals could have very different trends as they have different sources. Thus, the fixed effects measure the trend in each heavy metal in each OSPAR contaminants assessment area and the random effects measure variation in trends:

• between monitoring sites common across heavy metals (monitoring site); and
• residual variation (heavy metal: monitoring site + within-series variation).

There are two residual terms. Within-series variation is the variation associated with the estimate of the trend from the individual time series and is assumed known (and given by the square of the standard error). Heavy metal: monitoring site allows for any additional residual variation.

Evidence of trends in heavy metal concentrations at the assessment area scale was then assessed by plotting the estimated fixed effects with point-wise 95% confidence intervals.

Similar analyses explored status at the assessment area scale. Two summary measures were considered: the log ratio of the fitted concentration in the last monitoring year to the ERL; and the log ratio of the fitted concentration in the last monitoring year to the BAC. Baseline monitoring sites were also included in these analyses.

BAC assessment criteria differ spatially. The BACs and ERL assessment criteria used to assess sediment are set out in Table a and the number of monitoring sites with time series used for status and trend assessments are set out in Table b.

Differences in methodology used for the IA 2017 compared to the QSR 2010

For the IA 2017, a meta-analysis is used to synthesise the individual time series results and provide an assessment of status and trend at the assessment area level. Meta-analyses take into account both the estimate of status or trend in each time series and the uncertainty in that estimate. They provide a more objective regional assessment than was possible in the QSR 2010, where a simple tabulation of the trend and status at each monitoring site was presented.