Eutrophication Thematic Assessment

Social and economic drivers for activities affecting eutrophication

The main driver of eutrophication historically has been urbanisation, which concentrated the human population in urban centres and led to problems with the disposal of human and animal excreta. These problems reduced with the development of increasingly effective wastewater management systems, so that food security became the main driver of eutrophication. Arguably, modern agricultural production is driven by the need for trade and economic development as much as food security. Burning fuel for heat and transport also remain important drivers.

All social and economic drivers have the potential to influence eutrophication status. However, the rapidly increasing global population and the infrastructure and resources needed to support it stimulate many of the drivers that link to eutrophication, for example food; trade and movement of goods; materials; stable economies; industrial processes; health and wellbeing; and climate change mitigation, adaptation and resilience.

The need for food security

Population growth can lead to increased demand for food, which in turn can lead to changes affecting diet, global food chains, regulation, innovation, international trade, political stability, culture, international collaboration and food prices. Europe is the third most populous continent behind Asia and Africa. Its population in 2016 was estimated at 738 million, which accounts for 11% of the world's population. The continent is currently growing at a rate of 0,3% per annum.

Agriculture and aquaculture help to meet the demand for food security, but agricultural run-off and waste products from aquaculture can introduce nutrients and organic matter into the marine environment, leading to eutrophication effects. Increasing demands for nitrogenous fertilizers for use in agriculture (Lu and Tian, 2017), and particularly urea in recent times, are largely responsible for the rapidly increasing discharge of nitrogen to the marine environment (Jickells and Weston, 2011).

Agriculture is the biggest user of nitrogen in the world (EU Nitrogen Expert Panel, 2015). Run-off from agricultural land has been identified as the predominant source of the nitrogen discharges to the aquatic environment over the last two decades (EC, 2018; see also EEA, 2005, 2012, 2018a). Nitrogen consumption in agriculture has now levelled off in Europe, – although rates of change will vary significantly between OSPAR Contracting Parties – as a result of improved fertilizer application and the onset of the EU Urban Wastewater Directive.

From 2000 to 2015, the gross balance between nitrogen added to and removed from agricultural land in the EU showed an improving trend (Figure D.1), signifying that the gap between inputs and outputs was closing and the potential nitrogen surplus decreasing. This is more likely related to efficiency gains than to any reduction in agricultural effort. Efficiency gains have likely been achieved through adapted nitrogen management practices such as changes in fertilizer application techniques (Eurostat, 2015) and may have been driven by the implementation of other specific measures under the Common Agricultural Policy and EU legislation, such as the Nitrates Directive and the Water Framework Directive (WFD). However, this trend also reveals that since 2010 the nitrogen balance has not improved, i.e. the surplus of nitrogen from agricultural land has not declined further since 2010. Assessments for the year 2010 suggest that, for the EU, the average reference values for critical nitrogen loads were exceeded, underscoring that fertilizer applications in agriculture continue to drive eutrophication issues.

An additional, important driver of nutrient increase is the expansion in meat consumption across European countries. The bulk of European crop production is now used to feed animals and create biofuels. Of all the cereal crops used in Europe in 2016, the majority (59%) went to feed animals, with only 24% used to feed people. Of the protein-rich pulses and soy used in Europe, 53% (2016) and 88% (2013), respectively, were used for animal feed. At the same time, Europe is overproducing meat and dairy products, with EU production of beef, pork and poultry 4%, 16% and 8% higher than consumption, respectively, and production of dairy 14% higher than consumption. Over 71% of all agricultural land in the EU is dedicated to feeding livestock.

This rise in easily accessible, cheap meat products can also be measured from the rise in protein consumption across the OSPAR countries (Figure D.2). An average EU citizen consumes more than 80 kg of meat every year. The recommended amount of meat and cold cuts amounts to approximately 70 g of meat per day, which is slightly less than 26 kg per year. An average EU citizen is thus consuming well above recommended amounts, but this is expected to decrease. The price of beef is expected to remain fairly constant until 2025 and per capita meat consumption is expected to continue to increase worldwide by 2030.

Additional sources of nutrients include nitrogen and phosphorus discharges to coastal seas from domestic wastewater and groundwater inputs, driven by human population growth and lack of the infrastructure needed to deal with increasing sewage and stormwater discharges.

The need for construction

Demand for materials (marine aggregates), growing population with demand for housing and infrastructure (e.g. roads, shops, houses, towns), and increase in utilities (e.g. sewerage, power networks).

The growing global population and improvements to societal health and wellbeing are increasing the demand for housing and utilities, and thus for materials and their processing. One of the main challenges confronting agriculture in Europe is land take, namely the conversion of land to, for example, settlements and infrastructure (EEA, 2017a). The proportion of total land accounted for by agricultural land is shrinking and the sector is affected by land take. Independently of this, the number of farms is decreasing and the average farm size increasing. All three factors — land take, intensification and extensification — lead to loss of high nature value (HNV) farmland.

Construction often leads to an expansion of sealed surfaces, which affects stormwater management and run-off. Nutrient and water retention mechanisms such as wetlands compete for space, and rapid run-off from hard surfaces increasingly overloads combined sewerage systems, resulting in discharges of untreated wastewater. Proper design and integration of water management in construction is essential.

The need for societal wellbeing

Cost of living, environmental awareness, health of population, demands for goods and services, accessibility of goods and services (convenience), communications, socio-economic status (regional / national differences), culture, historic environment, tourism and recreation, pandemics.

Over 40% of European land is given to agriculture in order to meet these societal demands for food production, pollination and energy. Society is becoming increasingly better informed about the environment and the need for sustainable land use. This has led to some improvements in land use including decreases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and less pesticide use, but excess nutrient discharges, diffuse water pollution and loss of grassland biodiversity still persist. 

The need for economic development

Political and economic autonomy, international trade (goods and services) - imports and exports, foreign aid, tariffs and grants, international agreements, stocks and market prices, tourism.

Paradoxically, strategies to improve agricultural sustainability may hinder the achievement of overall sustainability goals. For example, efficiency gains are effective in reducing crop and nutrient losses, but solely focusing on system optimisation at the farm level may lock agriculture into a cycle of unsustainability (EEA, 2022). Since the 1950s, traditional farm management, which favoured a range of landscapes, habitats and plant and animal species, has been replaced by the rapid industrialisation of agriculture characterised by widespread intensification of subsidised farming methods. This has resulted in farm specialisation and increased use of chemical inputs and homogeneous landscapes, in turn leading to wider socio-economic changes in rural communities.

Europe's agriculture has received sustained support under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) over the last 50 years, evolving over time in growing recognition of agriculture's impacts on the environment. Unfortunately, the CAP has not changed sufficiently to reduce nutrient inputs below an acceptable level.

Increased competition for land is expected to influence European agriculture. For example, the production of renewable energy and biofuels also influences the conversion of natural or semi-natural ecosystems, whether for the production of biofuel feedstock or for the production of other crops such as animal feed. 

The need for trade and transport

Supply and demand of goods and services, national and international targets, tourism.

The need for trade and transport has resulted in a society dependent on the movement of products across national and international boundaries (Figure D.3). In 1990, the most significant sources of NOx emissions from OSPAR Contracting Parties were ‘Road transport' (41%), 'Stationary combustion, including energy production' (32%) and ‘Shipping’ (15%). However, emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in OSPAR countries decreased by 54% between 1990 and 2019. By 2019, shipping had become the major source of NOx emissions (31%) overtaking road transport (28%) (Gauss and Klein, 2022). The introduction of exhaust gas cleaning scrubbers also results in a direct waterborne input of nitrogen into marine waters, estimated at 1 281 kilotonnes / year (Jalkanen et al., 2022).

While agriculture is a major driver in respect of the need for food security, it also plays a large part regarding the need for trade and transport. In 2021, additional trade in agricultural products accounted for 8,1% of total additional EU international trade in goods, and between 2002 and 2021, EU trade in agricultural products more than doubled, equivalent to average annual growth of 4,8%.

This growth in production is not only a response to a growing population. Between 2005 and 2016 the EU lost up to 4,2 million farms, while the amount of land that was used for agricultural production remained largely the same. In animal farming, there is a clear trend of concentration and industrialisation. Between 2007 and 2016, EU exports of beef and pork nearly doubled, with exports of dairy products and poultry meat increasing by 35% and 43%, respectively.

Maritime transport of goods involves maintaining the navigability of waterways and therefore dredging of the seabed, which can release nutrients and other pollutants into the water column. Shipping can also result in the introduction of non-indigenous species through ballast water discharge, whose spread and associated problems can be exacerbated by eutrophication. The introduction of infrastructure to marine and coastal environments in order to meet society’s need for economic development (e.g. ports, housing, tourism and leisure, coastal protection) can alter hydrological and hydrodynamic conditions and thereby influence nutrient inputs.

Activities